The State of the Other 22

The State of College Basketball is a decrepit old ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 96.250, 26-5 (15-3)

This is the final computation of the State ratings for this site (1:00 pm ET version), as national postseason results are not included. After the last tourney games are played, the hourly updates switch off for the season. I think the index performed a lot better in its second time around, after I tweaked it last summer to account for momentum and the value of balanced scoring. Here's last year's final version.

And as it just so happens, many of the teams on the front end of this final post didn't get into the Tournament the old-fashioned way... the underlined teams are the ones that won their league titles, and the rest are in rough order of at-large likelihood. The Bulldogs, though they lost in a nip-and-tuck Horizon title game to Cleveland State, are so safely at home inside the bubble that they've ordered a "bundle" from the cable company. Here's a last look at their NCAA Selection Committee team sheet.

The State of College Basketball is a rapidly-aging ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 100.236, 25-4 (15-3)

That 58-56 thrill-ride of a win over Cleveland State to clinch the Horizon seems a lifetime ago rather than a week, probably because it earned the Bulldogs a nice long break and two rounds' worth of byes. And doesn't that selection committee sheet looks great? 2-1 against the RPI top 50, nine total victories over the top 100. Perhaps the only way they could miss out on the NCAA Tournament is if they lose by 65 points on their home court in the semis to Wright or Milwaukee. We're reaching here. They've done everything they need to do.

The State of College Basketball is a relatively new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 100.041, 24-4 (14-3)

The Bulldogs hang on at the top spot for the third straight week, after rebounding well from a two-loss stretch that had most everybody wondering if a team that starts three freshmen had finally come back to reality. A strong roadie in a hostile environment always turns that kind of conversation off, and Butler's 75-63 BracketBusters win at Davidson served as a nice introduction between the new players and casual fans around the country. The Bulldogs followed that up with the kind of standard blowout that's marked the Horizon season, a 78-57 thrashing of Youngstown State Thursday night. A win in a very Un-Senior Day on Saturday against Cleveland State would clinch the No. 1 seed and tourney hosting duties.

The State of College Basketball is a somewhat new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 99.179, 22-4 (13-3)

Sure, Butler is No. 1 on our side of the Red Line, but if you compare this with last week's list, note that nine points have disappeared from the index number (108.119) and it's still the best in class. Fact is that everybody is losing strength, which is unfortunate and doesn't bode well for March. In the Bulldogs' case, they lost two straight games (Loyola at home and Milwaukee away) characterized with messy backcourt play and a completely erased margin for error. After the BracketBusters trip to Davidson, Butler will close the regular season with Youngstown and a giant gut check with Cleveland State next Saturday.

The State of College Basketball is a kinda-new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 108.119, 21-2 (12-1)

Long breaks in the HL schedule give the conference extra time to consider the Bulldogs' 69-51 win at Wright State last Saturday, a statistical blowout for the Raiders in all categories except one: Butler's defense shut down Wright's guards and kept their shooting to 27 percent. Despite the blemish caused by Green Bay, the team remains in the national popularity contest and gets some home cooking this weekend against the two Chicago teams (UIC and Loyola). Both are 4-10 in the conference, so the Bulldogs will likely be 14-1 by the time they pack up for Milwaukee next Wednesday.

The State of College Basketball is a gracefully-aging ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Xavier (Atlantic 10), 107.399, 20-2 (8-0)

I've received a few notes in the past few days stating that I don't talk about the A-14 enough. A-ha! I've got you right where I want you, America! Once again, the national media has slagged off on treating the league like a power conference and now you need ol' Whelliston to blab about it. But in the site's defense, we do have plenty of talk about Hoops Nation's only league that's truly in the middle between the haves and have-nots in our rankings segment (as opposed to College Chalktalk, which is all over it like salt on fries).

Here's what you need to know: Xavier is kicking everyone's ass MMA-style. The Musketeers have won 11 in a row, are defeating A-14 opponents by an average of 16 points, and their powers are growing ever stronger with each passing day. Just tonight, they knocked around Temple at home on ESPN2. They still really need some leadership from the point (which is manifesting itself in boo-coo turnovers) and could stand to hit a few more free throws, but otherwise are the total package. Defense, rebounding, shooting, it's all there. And after passing Butler on this list, we have a great big trophy to send them. We know better than to include a return address.

The State of College Basketball is a sorta-newish ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 111.340, 18-1 (9-0)

There's been a bit of week creep to this list; I had it on Wednesday but that's a big national game night so everything would be outdated quickly, then putting it up Thursdays made more sense, but then there was a 350-mile drive through blizzard remnants yesterday. So my bad. Anyways, Butler. No team in America should be labelled "until proven otherwise" moreso than the Bulldogs. Their the RPI is seven, the only loss in 19 games was of the one-possession variety at Ohio State, and they've won 10 games in a row since, many in emphatic fashion. Sterling halfcourt defense, offensive efficiency, and 31 boards per game. What else do you want from these guys, a diamond ring?

The State of College Basketball is a sorta newish ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 110.214, 16-1 (7-0)

Strikingly little movement once again this week, with the mid-major power picture gelling so much that casual fans don't need an "expert" to explain it for them. The Bulldogs are undefeated at home (8-0), have an RPI of 8, and are headed for a virtually assured BracketBuster showdown at Saint Mary's -- selection for that is about the only thing the RPI is good for anymore, but there's this telegenic team with a superstar player that might host them instead... if the powers that be go in that direction. As mentioned earlier in the G!O!T!N! post, Butler has a pair of Dairy State contenders all up in its grill this week. There could be melted cheese, or hopes of an undefeated season buried beneath frozen tundra.

The State of College Basketball is a new-esque ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 109.328, 14-1 (5-0)

This is not likely to shock the pants right off you, but there really isn't much movement in this week's index. We know which teams are the ones good enough to pull off NCAA magic, and we have them placed on a relative scale, which is probably the list you'd come up with if you had a napkin, a pen, and your good judgement. The top five remain the same, headed up with the Bulldogs, spending their fourth week on the TS-22 throne. Butler is still nationally undersold on its accomplishments, but that's fine. You can point to the 42 percent shooting and slim margin last weekend against Detroit, but it was a slow game with few possessions. They shot 35 against Xavier and won that.

The State of College Basketball is a new-ish ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 113.649, 12-1 (3-0)

The Bulldogs remain the most dangerous team this level contains, staying above the fray in an increasingly fractious and unpredictable Horizon. Last Saturday, Butler bludgeoned Valpo with a +8 shooting margin and a +10 advantage on the boards. Wright State, which skewered Cleveland State last week in a G!O!T!N!, will be a stiff Thursday test before a comfortable home win against 4-9 Detroit, but the rest of the league is as difficult to read as a minefield.

The State of College Basketball is a new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Butler (Horizon League), 113.661, 11-1 (2-0)

Of course, there was no Week 4 here on this site thanks to the holidays, but the index has been churning out results on an hourly basis anyway. The Bulldogs are first in the RPI, fourth in strength of schedule, and first in the TS-22. They're 3-0 since our last transmission of this type, having beaten Florida Gulf Coast, Xavier and UAB. While ball control has been the No. 1 weapon of the past few years, this team is much more dynamic. Take, for example, the UAB win: +6 on turnovers, but a resounding +9 on the boards and a gentlemanly -11 on fouls.

The State of College Basketball is a brand-new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Xavier (Atlantic 10), 120.033, 9-0 (0-0)

Many people challenge me to prove that Xavier isn't the next Gonzaga, or even the first Gonzaga. The G-Men are exempt from our concerns, in large part because they truly transcended the WCC and became a viable TV product. To their credit, they twisted ESPN's virtual arm and put a greater shine on the conference, which helped it become the three-bid powerhouse it is today. The next step for the X is to become its own TV show, and lift the A-14 out of its TV mess. Just like Gonzaga did... and this could very well be the squad and the year and the moment that triggers that. We've talked about their small problems (ball control, general sloppiness), and those are being quickly fixed. This is a very special team with Final Four dreams.

The State of College Basketball is a brand-new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Xavier (Atlantic 10), 116.216, 7-0 (0-0)

As we mentioned in the ESPN chat last week, the Musketeers have a lot of ceiling left. They're riding their defense and rebounding to wins, and that's helped overcome some sloppy offensive play from a team guaranteed to get a better handle on the ball (15 turnovers a game so far). Junior Jason Love is the only X-Man who plays more than 20 minutes per game that's shooting better than 50 percent.

The State of College Basketball is a ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 344 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of 2006-07, did okay as a predictor last season, and enters 2008-09 ready for more. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 and a half (we include the A-14) conferences. This is the full chart, and this is a recording.

1. Evansville (Missouri Valley), 120.473, 4-1 (0-0)

The Purple Aces may be taking steps towards respectability, but kings of the freaking world? That's what you get with a small result set that's overly reliant on who you've played. Marty Simmons' Aces have knocked off two non-Division I teams (which don't count in any halfway-decent rating system), beat Austin Peay and Buffalo, but the reason why they're here for now -- as well as high in the standard strength of schedule and RPI ratings -- is due to the fact that they travelled to Butler last Saturday and managed not to get the snot beat out of them. This is important because...

The State of College Basketball is a brand-new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 341 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of last season. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 conferences. This is the full 246-team chart (which stopped hourly updates right before the selection show), and this is a doctored, spliced recording.

As of 3/16/2008, 6 p.m. ET
Legend: Rank. Team (Conference), Rating, Record (Conf. Record) [Last week]

1. Drake (Missouri Valley), 102.66, 28-4 (15-3)

There have been about five messages a day, wondering if I'd forgotten to post a final State out of shame or something. I think the index did pretty well in its first full season, mostly because it knew what it was. This never pretended to be a predictor of future events, or a measure of Tournament worthiness, it simply rewarded schools at our level that played excellent, well-rounded basketball, and would be in position to win the kinds of games. Some of these teams did just that and will in the near future, and others fell short.

The State of College Basketball is a brand-new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 341 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of last season. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 conferences. This is the full 246-team chart (updated hourly), and this is a recording.

As of 3/5/2008, 4 p.m. ET
Legend: Rank. Team (Conference), Rating, Record (Conf. Record) [Last week]

1. Drake (Missouri Valley), 101.07, 25-4 (15-3) [1]

Well, this will be the second-to-last State sheet we'll be digitally printing for the season. By this time next week, some of these teams will be eliminated and gone forever! But we feel pretty confident in the top 10 we have here in terms of Tournament toughness; remember that this index is a measure of well-roundedness, multi-dimensionality, and general overall solidity. That's why you see a lot of teams with one great statistical attribute, or one great scorer, down in the lower reaches. One-trick ponies don't survive March, we all know that.

The State of College Basketball is a brand-new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 341 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of last season. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 conferences. This is the full 246-team chart (updated hourly), and this is a recording.

As of 2/26/2008, 1 p.m. ET
Legend: Rank. Team (Conference), Rating, Record (Conf. Record) [Last week]

1. Drake (Missouri Valley), 103.68, 24-3 (14-2) [1]

There was quite a bit of movement in this here index after BracketBusters weekend, with two new teams entering the top 10 and some shell-shuffling in the top five. But we have the same No. 1 for the seventh straight week, which is just nine weeks fewer than the record 16 weeks "One Sweet Day" spent atop the Billboard Hot 100. We'll be right back after the jump with a long-distance dedication to a very special walk-on.

The State of College Basketball is a brand-new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 341 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of last season. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 conferences. This is the full 246-team chart (updated hourly), and this is a recording.

As of 2/19/2008, 1 p.m. ET
Legend: Rank. Team (Conference), Rating, Record (Conf. Record) [Last week]

1. Drake (Missouri Valley), 106.78, 23-2 (14-1) [1]

Here, then, are the 10 most likely teams from our level to go to the NCAA Tournament and win games there. If you're just joining us, our computer index rewards well-rounded play, recent momentum, road wins and all the things that matter in March. We're going to be super-pithy in this week's version, focusing on what's left to do before the conference tournaments.

Drake celebrated its first Valley regular season title in 37 years, and has three conference games to go before it takes its No. 1 seed in St. Louis at Arch Madness. All three teams the Bulldogs must face have already been vanquished: 8-7 Bradley at home tonight is perhaps the toughest test (that was a one-point win on the first go-round), then a visit to Missouri State (6-9) next Tuesday and Senior Day with sad-sack Wichita (3-12). Oh, almost forgot! There's also that ginormous BracketBuster this Saturday at...

The State of College Basketball is a brand-new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 341 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of last season. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 conferences. This is the full 246-team chart (updated hourly), and this is a recording.

As of 2/12/2008, 3 p.m. ET
Legend: Rank. Team (Conference), Rating, Record (Conf. Record) [Last week]

1. Drake (Missouri Valley), 107.39 22-1 (13-0) [1]

Clarification is always a good thing... we've only received one hate-mail letter about the Atlantic 14 since putting up the starburst at the top of the index page (and I quote: "whut flavor crack r you smoking, a-10 isnt mid major" A: Blueberry-Banana!). Now, I think I'm able to articulate what we're doing here with The State rankings. It's not a predictive formula, it's not something to take to the sportsbook in February. Our stat-basket formula, carefully calibrated to last year's Final Four, is measuring how well-rounded teams are -- as such, we are indexing the relative ability of teams to survive in a one-and-done situation. And in March, isn't that all anybody wants to know? Which Achilles' heels might end up with spears in them?

The State of College Basketball is a brand-new ratings system that uses a lot of good basketball sense, per-game team performance ratings and degradation of older results to rank the teams from No. 1 to 341 (here's the long-winded version). In its overall form, it retroactively picked three of the Final Four in a simulation of last season. For our purposes here, it gives the world's only hype-free, non-voting, computer poll of teams in the lower 22 conferences. This is the full 246-team chart (updated hourly), and this is a recording.

As of 2/5/2008, 1 p.m. ET
Legend: Rank. Team (Conference), Rating, Record (Conf. Record) [Last week]

1. Drake (Missouri Valley), 105.78, 20-1 (11-0) [1]

Let's put this year's Bulldogs season in Valley perspective and stark relief. Now that they've won against each of the other nine teams (and have already recorded sweeps against Creighton and Indiana State), they have broken a lot of losing streaks against a lot of teams. Coming into this year, Drake had lost to Missouri State 10 times in a row, Creighton six times, and Bradley three. And, of course, there was that 17-game drought against Southern Illinois. Get this: over the last decade, Drake has only enjoyed winning records against two MVC teams, their former cellar-mates Evansville (12-9) and Indiana State (13-8). This really is a special year.